Aris Thessaloniki
OFI Crete
The model leans OFI Crete at 37%. Expected goals: Aris Thessaloniki 0.86, OFI Crete 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Aris Thessaloniki won 3 of their last 3; OFI Crete won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aris Thessaloniki | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
| 2OFI Crete | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: OFI Crete. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aris Thessaloniki 0| Aris Thessaloniki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.