Predictions · Cup Group Stage · outside model coverage
AE Larissa
0–4
Won
Olympiacos
The model leans Olympiacos at 63%. Expected goals: AE Larissa 0.51, Olympiacos 2.02. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 65%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match20
72
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE Larissa | 7% | 13.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Olympiacos | 72% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.51 – 2.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–216.3%
- 0–116.1%
- 0–310.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −1.5| AE Larissa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 7% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| +1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.