Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Rennes

31
Won

Guingamp

The model leans Rennes at 67%. Expected goals: Rennes 2.62, Guingamp 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%. Rennes won 2 of their last 6; Guingamp won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Rennes76%1.32
XDraw16%6.23
2Guingamp8%12.06

Pick: Rennes. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.62 – 0.79
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.566%34%
3.544%56%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.3%
  • 309.9%
  • 219.0%
  • 108.7%
  • 317.8%
  • 116.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Rennes −1.5
Rennes lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.555%45%
-155%21%24%
-0.576%24%
076%15%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%6%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.