Rennes
Guingamp
The model leans Rennes at 67%. Expected goals: Rennes 2.62, Guingamp 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%. Rennes won 2 of their last 6; Guingamp won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rennes | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Guingamp | 8% | 12.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rennes. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.62 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rennes −1.5| Rennes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.