Unionistas de Salamanca
Lugo
The model leans Unionistas de Salamanca at 43%. Expected goals: Unionistas de Salamanca 1.30, Lugo 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Unionistas de Salamanca | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Lugo | 22% | 4.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Unionistas de Salamanca. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Unionistas de Salamanca −0.5| Unionistas de Salamanca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 26% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.