St. Gallen
Nordsjælland
The model leans Nordsjælland at 37%. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.38, Nordsjælland 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 60%. St. Gallen won 1 of their last 6; Nordsjælland won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Gallen | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Nordsjælland | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nordsjælland. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Gallen 0| St. Gallen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 25% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.