Nordsjælland
Brøndby IF
The model leans Nordsjælland at 41%. Expected goals: Nordsjælland 1.51, Brøndby IF 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Nordsjælland won 5 of their last 6; Brøndby IF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nordsjælland | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Brøndby IF | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nordsjælland. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nordsjælland −0.5| Nordsjælland line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.