AGF
Brøndby IF
The model leans AGF at 51%. Expected goals: AGF 1.66, Brøndby IF 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. AGF won 0 of their last 6; Brøndby IF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Brøndby IF | 18% | 5.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: AGF. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.3%
- 0–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AGF −1| AGF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.