Viborg
AGF
The model leans AGF at 50%. Expected goals: Viborg 1.16, AGF 1.81. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Viborg won 4 of their last 6; AGF won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viborg | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2AGF | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: AGF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.4%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AGF −0.5| Viborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.