Viborg
FC København
The model leans Viborg at 37%. Expected goals: Viborg 1.78, FC København 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. Viborg won 4 of their last 6; FC København won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viborg | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2FC København | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viborg. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
- 0–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viborg 0| Viborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 19% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.