FC København
Lyngby
The model leans FC København at 51%. Expected goals: FC København 2.41, Lyngby 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%. FC København won 5 of their last 6; Lyngby won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC København | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Lyngby | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC København. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.41 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.5%
- 2–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC København −1| FC København line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 21% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 19% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 13% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.