FC København
Sønderjyske
The model leans FC København at 51%. Expected goals: FC København 2.21, Sønderjyske 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%. FC København won 5 of their last 6; Sønderjyske won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC København | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Sønderjyske | 21% | 4.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC København. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.21 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC København −1| FC København line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 22% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.