Thisted
Sønderjyske
The model leans Sønderjyske at 51%. Expected goals: Thisted 0.78, Sønderjyske 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. Thisted won 0 of their last 6; Sønderjyske won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thisted | 16% | 6.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Sønderjyske | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sønderjyske. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.2%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.3%
- 0–36.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sønderjyske −1| Thisted line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.