Fremad Amager
Thisted
The model leans Draw at 33%. Expected goals: Fremad Amager 0.90, Thisted 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 66%. Fremad Amager won 2 of their last 6; Thisted won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fremad Amager | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Thisted | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.0%
- 1–016.1%
- 0–114.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fremad Amager 0| Fremad Amager line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.