VSK Aarhus
Thisted
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: VSK Aarhus 0.93, Thisted 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 61%. VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6; Thisted won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VSK Aarhus | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Thisted | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–015.1%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VSK Aarhus 0| VSK Aarhus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 32% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.