Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

HIK

02
Won

VSK Aarhus

The model leans VSK Aarhus at 41%. Expected goals: HIK 1.27, VSK Aarhus 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. HIK won 1 of their last 6; VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1HIK29%3.48
XDraw27%3.75
2VSK Aarhus45%2.24

Pick: VSK Aarhus. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.62
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.555%45%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.4%
  • 129.3%
  • 019.0%
  • 027.3%
  • 217.2%
  • 107.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: VSK Aarhus −0.5
HIK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%17%70%
-0.530%70%
030%24%46%
+0.554%46%
+154%22%24%
+1.576%24%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.