HIK
VSK Aarhus
The model leans VSK Aarhus at 41%. Expected goals: HIK 1.27, VSK Aarhus 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. HIK won 1 of their last 6; VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1HIK | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2VSK Aarhus | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: VSK Aarhus. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VSK Aarhus −0.5| HIK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.