Predictions · 2. Division Promotion Group · outside model coverage

FC Roskilde

32
Won

HIK

The model leans FC Roskilde at 61%. Expected goals: FC Roskilde 2.56, HIK 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6; HIK won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Roskilde70%1.43
XDraw18%5.57
2HIK12%8.11

Pick: FC Roskilde. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.56 – 1.03
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.569%31%
3.548%52%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 219.3%
  • 209.1%
  • 318.0%
  • 307.8%
  • 117.3%
  • 107.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Roskilde −1.5
FC Roskilde lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.549%51%
-149%22%30%
-0.570%30%
070%17%13%
+0.587%13%
+187%9%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.