FC Roskilde
Middelfart
The model leans FC Roskilde at 57%. Expected goals: FC Roskilde 2.46, Middelfart 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%. FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6; Middelfart won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Roskilde | 66% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Middelfart | 15% | 6.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Roskilde. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.46 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–06.8%
- 1–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Roskilde −1| FC Roskilde line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.