Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

FC Roskilde

11
Lost

Middelfart

The model leans FC Roskilde at 57%. Expected goals: FC Roskilde 2.46, Middelfart 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%. FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6; Middelfart won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Roskilde66%1.53
XDraw19%5.18
2Middelfart15%6.61

Pick: FC Roskilde. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.46 – 1.14
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.570%30%
3.548%52%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 219.4%
  • 208.3%
  • 317.7%
  • 117.7%
  • 306.8%
  • 106.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Roskilde −1
FC Roskilde lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.544%56%
-144%22%34%
-0.566%34%
066%18%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%10%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.