Middelfart
Nykøbing FC
The model leans Nykøbing FC at 76%. Expected goals: Middelfart 0.64, Nykøbing FC 4.30. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 53%. Middelfart won 3 of their last 5; Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middelfart | 2% | 59.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 5% | 20.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Nykøbing FC | 93% | 1.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 93%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.64 – 4.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–410.5%
- 0–39.8%
- 0–59.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 1–46.7%
- 0–66.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2| Middelfart line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 98% |
| -0.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| 0 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| +0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| +1 | 7% | 10% | 83% |
| +1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.