Nykøbing FC
Næstved
The model leans Nykøbing FC at 73%. Expected goals: Nykøbing FC 3.14, Næstved 0.51. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 61%. Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6; Næstved won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nykøbing FC | 87% | 1.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 10.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Næstved | 3% | 33.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 73% (raw model output 87%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.14 – 0.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 3–013.5%
- 2–012.9%
- 4–010.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–16.9%
- 5–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2| Nykøbing FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| -1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| -0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| 0 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +0.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
| +1 | 97% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.