Brabrand
Næstved
The model leans Næstved at 37%. Expected goals: Brabrand 1.06, Næstved 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Brabrand won 1 of their last 6; Næstved won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brabrand | 31% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Næstved | 38% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næstved. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–010.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brabrand 0| Brabrand line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 22% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.