Næstved
VSK Aarhus
The model leans Næstved at 42%. Expected goals: Næstved 1.36, VSK Aarhus 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Næstved won 2 of their last 6; VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Næstved | 46% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2VSK Aarhus | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næstved. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næstved −0.5| Næstved line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.