Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

VSK Aarhus

00
Lost

FA 2000

The model leans FA 2000 at 50%. Expected goals: VSK Aarhus 0.56, FA 2000 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 69%. VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6; FA 2000 won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1VSK Aarhus16%6.16
XDraw33%3.01
2FA 200051%1.98

Pick: FA 2000. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.56 – 1.20
LineOverUnder
1.552%48%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes30%No70%

Most likely scores

  • 0120.6%
  • 0017.2%
  • 0212.3%
  • 1111.6%
  • 109.7%
  • 126.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FA 2000 −0.5
VSK Aarhus lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.54%96%
-14%13%83%
-0.517%83%
017%31%52%
+0.548%52%
+148%28%23%
+1.577%23%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.