VSK Aarhus
FA 2000
The model leans FA 2000 at 50%. Expected goals: VSK Aarhus 0.56, FA 2000 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 69%. VSK Aarhus won 5 of their last 6; FA 2000 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VSK Aarhus | 16% | 6.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
| 2FA 2000 | 51% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: FA 2000. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.56 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.6%
- 0–017.2%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FA 2000 −0.5| VSK Aarhus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 13% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 31% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 28% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.