Thisted
FA 2000
The model leans FA 2000 at 40%. Expected goals: Thisted 0.59, FA 2000 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 71%. Thisted won 0 of their last 6; FA 2000 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thisted | 20% | 5.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| 2FA 2000 | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: FA 2000. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.59 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.6%
- 0–120.5%
- 1–012.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FA 2000 −0.5| Thisted line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 16% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 34% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.