Middelfart
Thisted
The model leans Thisted at 43%. Expected goals: Middelfart 1.17, Thisted 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Middelfart won 3 of their last 5; Thisted won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middelfart | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Thisted | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thisted. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thisted −0.5| Middelfart line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.