HIK
Middelfart
The model leans HIK at 39%. Expected goals: HIK 2.14, Middelfart 2.03. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 77%. HIK won 1 of their last 6; Middelfart won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1HIK | 41% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Middelfart | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: HIK. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 2.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–25.2%
- 3–15.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: HIK 0| HIK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 18% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 17% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.