Næstved
HIK
The model leans Næstved at 60%. Expected goals: Næstved 2.41, HIK 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%. Næstved won 2 of their last 6; HIK won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Næstved | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
| 2HIK | 14% | 7.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næstved. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.41 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næstved −1.5| Næstved line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.