Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

Nykøbing FC

22
Lost

Fremad Amager

The model leans Nykøbing FC at 70%. Expected goals: Nykøbing FC 2.65, Fremad Amager 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 69%. Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6; Fremad Amager won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Nykøbing FC84%1.18
XDraw12%8.14
2Fremad Amager3%30.96

Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.65 – 0.40
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.559%41%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes31%No69%

Most likely scores

  • 2016.6%
  • 3014.7%
  • 1012.5%
  • 409.7%
  • 216.7%
  • 315.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2
Nykøbing FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.564%36%
-164%21%15%
-0.585%15%
085%11%4%
+0.596%4%
+196%3%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.