Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

Fremad Amager

11
Lost

FC Roskilde

The model leans Fremad Amager at 29%. Expected goals: Fremad Amager 1.07, FC Roskilde 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Fremad Amager won 2 of their last 6; FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Fremad Amager35%2.87
XDraw33%3.05
2FC Roskilde32%3.09

Pick: Fremad Amager. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.02
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.5%
  • 1013.3%
  • 0112.7%
  • 0012.4%
  • 217.2%
  • 207.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Fremad Amager 0
Fremad Amager lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%22%64%
-0.536%64%
036%30%34%
+0.566%34%
+166%21%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.