Predictions · 2. Division · outside model coverage

Nykøbing FC

22
Lost

FC Roskilde

The model leans Nykøbing FC at 71%. Expected goals: Nykøbing FC 3.06, FC Roskilde 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 60%. Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6; FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Nykøbing FC86%1.16
XDraw10%9.58
2FC Roskilde3%29.07

Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 86%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.06 – 0.54
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.570%30%
3.548%52%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 3013.1%
  • 2012.8%
  • 4010.0%
  • 108.4%
  • 317.1%
  • 217.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2
Nykøbing FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.569%31%
-169%18%13%
-0.587%13%
087%10%4%
+0.596%4%
+196%3%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.