Nykøbing FC
FC Roskilde
The model leans Nykøbing FC at 71%. Expected goals: Nykøbing FC 3.06, FC Roskilde 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 60%. Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6; FC Roskilde won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nykøbing FC | 86% | 1.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 9.58 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Roskilde | 3% | 29.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 86%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.06 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 3–013.1%
- 2–012.8%
- 4–010.0%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2| Nykøbing FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| -1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| -0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| 0 | 87% | 10% | 4% |
| +0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| +1 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.