Skive
Nykøbing FC
The model leans Nykøbing FC at 70%. Expected goals: Skive 0.48, Nykøbing FC 2.56. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 64%. Skive won 2 of their last 6; Nykøbing FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Skive | 4% | 22.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Nykøbing FC | 82% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nykøbing FC. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 82%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.48 – 2.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–215.6%
- 0–313.3%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–48.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nykøbing FC −2| Skive line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 4% | 95% |
| -0.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| 0 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| +0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| +1 | 18% | 22% | 61% |
| +1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.