AGF
FC Midtjylland
The model leans AGF at 37%. Expected goals: AGF 1.37, FC Midtjylland 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. AGF won 0 of their last 6; FC Midtjylland won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Midtjylland | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: AGF. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AGF 0| AGF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 26% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.