Silkeborg
FC Midtjylland
The model leans FC Midtjylland at 68%. Expected goals: Silkeborg 0.98, FC Midtjylland 2.95. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 60%. Silkeborg won 1 of their last 6; FC Midtjylland won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Silkeborg | 9% | 11.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 6.90 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Midtjylland | 77% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Midtjylland. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 2.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 0–28.6%
- 0–38.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.3%
- 0–46.2%
- 1–46.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Midtjylland −2| Silkeborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 6% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 13% | 77% |
| +0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| +1 | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| +1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.