FC Midtjylland
Randers FC
The model leans FC Midtjylland at 68%. Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.47, Randers FC 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. FC Midtjylland won 3 of their last 6; Randers FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Midtjylland | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Randers FC | 6% | 16.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Midtjylland. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.47 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.4%
- 3–011.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.3%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Midtjylland −2| FC Midtjylland line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 22% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.