FC Midtjylland
AC Horsens
The model leans FC Midtjylland at 56%. Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.78, AC Horsens 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. FC Midtjylland won 3 of their last 6; AC Horsens won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Midtjylland | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2AC Horsens | 11% | 9.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Midtjylland. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 2–014.6%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Midtjylland −1| FC Midtjylland line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.