AC Horsens
Brøndby IF
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: AC Horsens 0.89, Brøndby IF 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. AC Horsens won 3 of their last 6; Brøndby IF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Horsens | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Brøndby IF | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–015.6%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AC Horsens 0| AC Horsens line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 21% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 32% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.