AGF
Viborg
The model leans AGF at 56%. Expected goals: AGF 2.20, Viborg 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%. AGF won 0 of their last 6; Viborg won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Viborg | 14% | 7.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: AGF. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AGF −1| AGF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 23% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.