Predictions · Champions League Qualification · outside model coverage

Union St.Gilloise

33
Lost

Bodø/Glimt

The model leans Bodø/Glimt at 41%. Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise 1.19, Bodø/Glimt 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Union St.Gilloise won 3 of their last 6; Bodø/Glimt won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Union St.Gilloise28%3.59
XDraw27%3.65
2Bodø/Glimt45%2.23

Pick: Bodø/Glimt. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.57
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.8%
  • 019.9%
  • 129.3%
  • 027.8%
  • 107.6%
  • 217.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bodø/Glimt −0.5
Union St.Gilloise lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%17%71%
-0.529%71%
029%25%46%
+0.554%46%
+154%23%23%
+1.577%23%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.