Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
Eibar
1–3
Lost
Tenerife
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Eibar 0.79, Tenerife 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 68%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match31
38
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eibar | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Tenerife | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.1%
- 0–116.3%
- 1–016.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Eibar 0| Eibar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.