Eibar
Athletic Club
The model leans Eibar at 39%. Expected goals: Eibar 1.20, Athletic Club 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. Eibar won 2 of their last 5; Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eibar | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Eibar. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Eibar −0.5| Eibar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.