Eibar
Real Valladolid
The model leans Eibar at 51%. Expected goals: Eibar 1.43, Real Valladolid 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%. Eibar won 2 of their last 5; Real Valladolid won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eibar | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Valladolid | 14% | 7.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Eibar. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.1%
- 2–013.7%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Eibar −1| Eibar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.