Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
Cádiz
1–1
Lost
Real Valladolid
The model leans Cádiz at 34%. Expected goals: Cádiz 1.11, Real Valladolid 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match37
33
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cádiz | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Valladolid | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cádiz. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cádiz 0| Cádiz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.