Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
Cadiz
0–0
Lost
Celta Fortuna
The model leans Celta Fortuna at 39%. Expected goals: Cadiz 1.19, Celta Fortuna 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match29
28
42
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cadiz | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Celta Fortuna | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celta Fortuna. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Fortuna −0.5| Cadiz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.