Ponferradina
Celta Fortuna
The model leans Ponferradina at 39%. Expected goals: Ponferradina 1.22, Celta Fortuna 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. Ponferradina won 2 of their last 4; Celta Fortuna won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ponferradina | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Celta Fortuna | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ponferradina. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ponferradina −0.5| Ponferradina line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.