Predictions · Primera Federacion Promotion Playoff · outside model coverage
Atletico Madrileno
0–1
Lost
Ponferradina
The model leans Atletico Madrileno at 29%. Expected goals: Atletico Madrileno 1.12, Ponferradina 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match35
32
33
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico Madrileno | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Ponferradina | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Madrileno. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–112.0%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Madrileno 0| Atletico Madrileno line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.