Predictions · Primera Federacion - Group 1 · outside model coverage
UD Ourense
0–1
Lost
Ponferradina
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: UD Ourense 0.78, Ponferradina 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 70%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match32
39
30
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1UD Ourense | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Ponferradina | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.6%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–116.2%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–06.6%
- 0–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: UD Ourense 0| UD Ourense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 22% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.