Predictions · Primera Federacion Promotion Playoff · outside model coverage
Celta Fortuna
3–2
Won
CE Europa
The model leans Celta Fortuna at 50%. Expected goals: Celta Fortuna 2.03, CE Europa 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match55
23
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celta Fortuna | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2CE Europa | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celta Fortuna. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Fortuna −1| Celta Fortuna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.