Predictions · Primera Federacion - Group 2 · outside model coverage
CE Europa
0–3
Won
Real Jaén
The model leans Real Jaén at 37%. Expected goals: CE Europa 1.19, Real Jaén 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match31
29
40
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CE Europa | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Jaén | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Jaén. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–07.8%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CE Europa 0| CE Europa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.