Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage
SC Imst
1–3
Won
Hartberg
The model leans Hartberg at 41%. Expected goals: SC Imst 2.38, Hartberg 2.64. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 85%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match36
19
45
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Imst | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Hartberg | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hartberg. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.38 – 2.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 74% | 26% |
| Both teams to score | Yes84% | No16% |
Most likely scores
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–25.5%
- 3–25.2%
- 2–14.9%
- 1–34.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Imst 0| SC Imst line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 15% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 18% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 17% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.