Arbroath
Stirling Albion
The model leans Arbroath at 71%. Expected goals: Arbroath 3.07, Stirling Albion 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 57%. Arbroath won 3 of their last 6; Stirling Albion won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arbroath | 85% | 1.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Stirling Albion | 4% | 25.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arbroath. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.07 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 3–012.3%
- 2–012.1%
- 4–09.5%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arbroath −2| Arbroath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| -1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| -0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| 0 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| +1 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.