Partick Thistle
Livingston
The model leans Partick Thistle at 64%. Expected goals: Partick Thistle 2.43, Livingston 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 50%. Partick Thistle won 2 of their last 6; Livingston won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Partick Thistle | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Livingston | 9% | 10.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Partick Thistle. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Partick Thistle −1.5| Partick Thistle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.